A few quick thoughts on super weekend
As super weekend winds down, there are a few things on my mind about what's happening.
- Kennedy's numbers are higher than I would have expected, but I'm not sure he has a lot of room for growth. I expect the other candidates will not really consider him for their support, but you never know.
- Dion's numbers still have room for growth. Apparently, 2/3 of Quebec has yet to report.
- Brison is being written off too early. I suspect his numbers will rise as rural ridings start checking in later in the week, though not to a seriously competitive level.
- I did not make it in as a delegate for Dion for Guelph. There were 12 Dion candidates in my riding, but only two got in. I don't really understand how the algorithm works from there, but as far as I know I didn't make it. Not that I've heard officially, mind you. I spent the entire voting period outside the voting area with people from the Dion (3), Ignatieff (3), Dryden (1), Rae (1), and Kennedy (1) camps offering assistance to arriving voters, but most people had already decided.
- Guelph turnout was around 30% of a not very big number.
- My MP, a declared Kennedy supporter, was a no-show for the vote, though both people who have declared as potential replacements for her spent most of the afternoon there.
- Cross Country Checkup callers this afternoon appear to be overwhelmingly in favour of Dion. Robin Sears commented on the show, and I agree, that Rae is the choice for people concerned about the left, Ignatieff is the choice for people concerned about the right, and Dion is the choice for people who want someone in the centre. I think the right is sufficiently well represented in our political landscape at the moment, though would have no objections to Ignatieff being in a senior cabinet role providing the right's representation. The left is fractured at the moment, but a strong centrist leader can definitely bring in the left-side pragmatists. A right wing leader will only help to consolidate the left on a party other than the Liberals.
- Sears also expressed hope for a Dion-Rae last ballot to avoid blood on the floor at the end of the convention.
- A friend of mine in another riding voted Ignatieff because he is leading. Elections Canada definitely has it right when they disallow distribution of results before the end of voting.
- The Liberal party site's live results requires flash 8. Flash is only available up to version 7 for Linux, so I can see pretty bars, but not the names associated with them.
- I hope that delegates in Montreal do not feel obligated to vote the way their candidates do as they drop out. The reasons for one candidate supporting another are not generally related to principles. Delegates, on the other hand, are free to throw their support the way they want to.
- Volpe's really blown it. Had he gotten out early, he might have a shred of credibility left, but even the 180 decibel 'get lost, already' from the party seems to have fallen on deaf ears with him.
- Who would be Dion's Environment Minister?
Posted at 18:03 on October 01, 2006
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